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Speculation is a game you can’t win

A few years ago, I was at dinner with Chris Peach of Money Peach when he told me he never orders his own meal at dinner. He asks the server to pick for him (“pick something you’d order for your friend”) and I thought he was crazy. He told me he’s never been steered wrong and I believe him.

I have my own mildly quirky meal ordering rules too – the key of which is to never order your favorite dish at another restaurant (especially one you’ll never go back to). So if I have a favorite burger place, I don’t order a burger anywhere else. You can only lose.

If the burger is better, then the old burger won’t live up to it. If the burger is worse, well, you’ve just ordered a worse meal. Good job buddy. 🙂

It’s a little like our first article about speculation and why you can’t win.

Speculation: A Game You Can’t Win [More to That] – “Here’s the thing about speculation: Realized gains feel like penalties when they’re interpreted as missed opportunities. Walking away with a great 10x return will make you feel terrible if that came at the expense of a future 100x return. If the top turned out to be much further out than you thought, then you can’t help but to be unhappy with the gains you actually did realize (no matter how good they were).”

What You Need To Know Before You Invest In Anything [Thomas Kopelman] – “I also want to note that chasing investment returns as a millennial is not where your energy is best spent. Your energy is best spent continually investing, increasing your income, increasing your investment percentage, investing in the right accounts based on taxes, etc.” A bunch of good questions to ask yourself before you invest in anything.

Declassified Cold War code-breaking manual has lessons for solving ‘impossible’ puzzles [Phys.org] – “The United States National Security Agency—the country’s premier signals intelligence organization—recently declassified a Cold War-era document about code-breaking. The 1977 book, written by cryptologist Lambros Callimahos, is the last in a trilogy called Military Cryptanalytics. It’s significant in the history of cryptography, as it explains how to break all types of codes, including military codes, or puzzles—which are created solely for the purpose of a challenge.”

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