When You Have No Idea What Happens Next [Collaborative Fund] – “Do we know more about what’s going to happen in the next 12 months today than we did in January? You’d think so. We now know there’s a pandemic that shut the economy down. We didn’t know that in January. But remember what Daniel Kahneman says. “The correct lesson to learn from surprises is that the world is surprising.”
The things we thought about the world in January now look oblivious. But what does that tell us about our view of the world today? Couldn’t the world change in as surprising a way between April and June as it did from January to March? Of course it could. That should be the main takeaway of 2020.”
Hmmmm… it’s a great point. More important than the lead are the two ideas he offers up next as to what to do instead of trying to predict.
Also, this video is really funny – Julie travels through time to explain the pandemic to herself:
The real Lord of the Flies: what happened when six boys were shipwrecked for 15 months [Guardian] – “When a group of schoolboys were marooned on an island in 1965, it turned out very differently from William Golding’s bestseller, writes Rutger Bregman.” I read a lot of books as a kid and there are few that I remember as much as Lord of the Flies.
The article has a bit of build-up but the payoff is worth it. Six boys, ages 13 to 16, survived on an island for 15 months. It’s wild.
Time to read some history Apexian!